World Politics Thread

I know sanctions sound like a nothing threat but we live in an interconnected world.

Putin doesn't stay in power through elections. He stays in power because the oligarchs and billionaires support the regime. There's no point having all that clout if you are stuck in your mansion watching your finances crumble. This isn't NK where the rich are content with a few nice watches and running water.

Crippling finances is preferable to engaging in combat which would probably solidify support.

Removal from SWIFT, restrictions on travel and siezed bank accounts may seem trivial in the face of full scale warfare but I genuinely believe it's the right response, provided they throw absolutely everything at it.

It's a tricky one, but the alternative is to just let Russia take Ukraine.

But then what? I don't think Putin would stop at Ukraine. Those ex-Soviet states are quite moreish.

So we just wait until they're empowered enough to attempt something on a country in NATO?

Maybe this guy is right?
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/23/obsession-sanctions-oligarchs-putin-hurt-russian-leader-ukraine

I'd want enormous sanctions, SWIFT blocked, travel of the elite blocked, to cripple Russia but have sanctions ever really worked?

I agree that sanctions should be tried first, but it's that "throw everything at it" part that concerns me, because some world leaders don't seem really on board with that. Boris being one of them.

Perhaps successive Governments cutting the UK army down to something that could fit inside Wembley Stadium, with space left over, wasn't such a good idea after all.

I agree, but that's a pretty big If at the end there. Certainly not convinced the UK and US will go that far. The EU might.

Well the Russians have spent the past 10 years financing our political institutions and making sure the EU is reliant on its gas and oil. This situation is part our fault and the fault of our governments.

Just finished the Russian version of a report into arms and weaponary in eastern Ukraine - really want to add a little note for the tosspots in Moscow hidden in the introduction.

Shouting “DO SOMETHING!” at your computer screen isn’t going to help either

The problem is Putin only respects force and strength (like Trump). Sanctions and telling him off really won't achieve much but what's the alternative?

Yup. I mean the wide consensus among the relevant experts on Russian politics/international security is that sanctions of this severity is quite literally the ONLY thing that would give Putin pause for thought. Supply of military resources to Ukraine is only a middling, possibly even minor, inconvenience for Russia; and there is no actual threat of boots on the ground, as Putin comfortably knows.

But if the political appetite isn't there for either the UK or US, which it does not appear to be, then he will slowly but surely (maybe even not that slowly) swallow up Ukraine as the West stands impotently by. His eyes will then turn to non-NATO neighboring regions.

Whilst the US response might be a bit lukewarm, can you imagine Trump's response?

"Good morning Vladimir, and can I just say great job, great job. I'm sure it's going to be great. It'll be great. Let me know if you need a hand and America will stand with you. Thank you very much, thhhhhhhank you very much."

"It's not my job to know what to do, I'm just here to continually shout they're not doing enough without offering any suggestions of my own"

Yeah, imagine if Putin decided to stop giving the EU oil and gas, or maybe give it for 10x the price. Bet those sanctions would disappear real quick.

Frankly I have no idea what will happen here. I guess the "luckiest" outcome would be if it just stopped after this. But I doubt it. You give him what he wants, he'll probably start asking for more.